Tukumbuke kwamba kwa mujibu wa sheria, ushindi unapaswa kuhusisha asilimia 25 ya kura kutoka (angalau) Kaunti 24.
--- On Mon, 3/4/13, Mobhare Matinyi <matinyi@hotmail.com> wrote:
From: Mobhare Matinyi <matinyi@hotmail.com>
Subject: [Mabadiliko] RE: [wanabidii] Uchambuzi: Kuna Dalili Wakenya Wanakwenda Kumchagua ' Jogoo Mwembamba'- Uhuru Kenyatta...!
To: "Wanabidii googlegroups" <wanabidii@googlegroups.com>
Cc: "Mabadiliko" <mabadilikotanzania@googlegroups.com>
Date: Monday, March 4, 2013, 7:14 PM
Karata ya makabila ndiyo itakayoamua mshindi. Vijana iwapo wataamua kumpigia mtu "wao" basi atakuwa Uhuru Kenyatta - si wazee kwa kumkumbuka baba yake, labda wazee wa kikikuyu. Nina wachambuzi wazuri sana hapa wa siasa za Kenya kutoka makabila makuu na wawili niliwaamulia ugomvi juzi - mwanamke mwenye kisomo cha PhD alitaka kuzichapa na dume lenye kisomo cha MA kana kwamba ni wajanja tu wa barabarani. Ni mwendo wa makabila tu, hakuna kingine Kenya na wala watu hawavijui vema vyama vyao, wanafuata majina ya watu wa makabila yao na pale ambapo hawana mtu wanampigia waliyeambiwa kwamba ndiye. Hakuna sera wala siasa.
CC: wanabidii@googlegroups.com; mabadilikotanzania@googlegroups.com From: ansbertn@yahoo.com Subject: Re: [wanabidii] Uchambuzi: Kuna Dalili Wakenya Wanakwenda Kumchagua ' Jogoo Mwembamba'- Uhuru Kenyatta...! Date: Tue, 5 Mar 2013 05:34:53 +0300 To: wanabidii@googlegroups.com Maggid,
Mambo mawili. Kwanza, bado sana. Hatua ya kuhesabu kura iko mwanzoni. Takwimu zinaonyesha Uhuru anashuka kidogo Kila baada ya robo saa, na Raila anapanda. Uwezekano wa kurudia uchaguzi hauwezi kuondolewa kwa hatua ya sasa. Na hili likitokea, uchambuzi unaweza kubadilika. Pili, kizazi kinachopiga kura Kenya leo, tena hao mashabiki we Uhuru, si cha "bora ya jana" maana asilimia kubwa kinamjua Moi, si Kenyatta. Of course, akili yangu inamwendea jogoo mnene, kwa kuzingatia mchango na muono wake katika historia ya mageuzi Kenya. Tuendelee kufuatilia matokeo.
Sent from my iPad Ndugu zangu,
Afrika ukikuta jogoo wawili wanagombana, basi, hapo hapakosi mashabiki. Na kila shabiki aliyesimama kutazama mpambano wa majogoo hao, ujue, kuwa ana jogoo wake anayemshabikia.
Na jogoo anayemshabikia akishindwa pambano, shabiki ataondoka akisononeka. Kuna ambao watakosa hata hamu ya chakula siku hiyo. Kisa? Jogoo wake kagalagazwa!
Na kama jogoo mmoja ni mnene na mwingine ni mwembamba, ujue, kuwa jogoo mwembamba ana mashabiki wengi.
Ukifuatilia mwenendo wa Uchaguzi wa Kenya kuna dalili kuwa Uhuru Kenyatta ambaye pia anatuhumiwa na Mahakama ya Kimataifa ya Makosa ya Jinai anaelekea kwenye kupata ushindi.
Moja ya tafsiri ya jambo hili ni ilivyo kwenye fikra za wapiga kura ambao ni wengi ni watu wa kawaida- kuwa Uhuru anaonewa, hata na mataifa ya nje. Kwamba mambo ya Kenya yao yanaingiliwa pia na wasio Wakenya, tena Wazungu.
Wakenya wana historia ya mapambano magumu ya kudai uhuru kutoka kwa ' Wazungu'- ni tangu enzi za Mau Mau.
Pamoja na utajiri wake, bado Wakenya wengi wa kawaida wanamwona Uhuru kama mtu wanayefanana naye. Ni mwanadamu kama wengine. Huko nyuma Uhuru amekuwa na historia ya matatizo binafsi pia ya kimaisha, ikiwamo matatizo ya pombe, hivyo ya kifamilia pia. Wakenya wengi wanaishi wakijisikia kuwa wananyanyaswa na kuonewa. Wanamwona Uhuru Kenyatta kuwa ni mtu anayeonewa pia.
Hivyo, yawezekana kuna kura za ' kuonewa huruma' ambazo Uhuru Kenyatta anaweza kuzipata, hata kutoka kwa watu wa kabila la Wajaluo. Wanaojiona ' wanafanana naye'.
Na lingine ambalo laweza kutokea ni ukweli, kuwa katika matatizo mengi wanayoyakabili Wakenya kwa sasa, kuna ambao wanaikumbuka ' Bora ya jana' ya Mzee Jommo Kenyatta. Wanaikumbuka historia. hivyo, kuna Wakenya waliopiga kura za ' nostalgie'- Kura za ' Zilipendwa'.
Kuna Wakenya wengi walimpenda Mzee Jommo Kenyatta. Bado wanakumbukumbu za ' Fuata Nyayo'. Na Uhuru naye anaitwa ' Kenyatta'- Jina lake la pili. Ni mwana wa Mzee wa ' Fuata Nyayo.
Naam, Nyayo zilishapotea. Kuna wenye hamu ya kuzitafuta. Wanaamini Uhuru atawasaidia kuziona. Na tusubiri tuone.
Maggid Mjengwa,
Msamvu, Morogoro
0788 111 765
http://mjengwablog.co.tz
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