My verdict of the 27 ward by-election results: CCM is stabilising, CHADEMA is shrinking and CUF is disappearing
Dr Kitila Mkumbo
In November 2012 I wrote an article entailing my assessment of the outcome of the council by-elections in 29 wards across the country. The article was published in the weekly Raia Mwema No. 267 of 7 November 2012 titled CHADEMA inakua, CCM inasinyaa (CHADEMA growing, CCM shrinking). In this election, CCM won in 22 wards, CHADEMA in five wards and TLP and CUF won in one ward each. Both CCM and CHADEMA celebrated these results jubilantly.
My verdict of this outcome was that CCM was shrinking, and CHADEMA was growing but at a rather slow pace. My assessment was based on the fact that CHADEMA had won in four new wards that were won by CCM in the 2010 general elections and managed to defend its victory in one ward that it won in the general elections.
My assessment was criticised by the leaders and fans of both parties. CCM, on the one hand, criticised my assessment by concluding that CCM was shrinking, and CHADEMA, on the other, criticised my assessment by concluding that it was growing at a slower pace than would be expected. Indeed, being a member of CHADEMA then, I had made a more scathing criticism in the party meetings by stating that the level of victory that we were getting in the by-elections was too little and did not match the level of enthusiasm and popularity that the party was enjoying in the streets. Thus, I was actually less critical of CHADEMA in the public domain than I had been in the party meetings. My criticism was not positively received by many of my colleagues in the party and I was lazily labelled as pessimistic, and that I was too academic and idealistic in my analysis because I did not know the actual politics on the ground.
Today again I make my analysis of the just concluded council by-election in 27 wards across the country. All the main political parties participated in these elections, with CCM and CHADEMA filing candidates in all wards except one in Lushoto (Mtae Ward) where the CCM candidate went unopposed.
I have argued elsewhere that the outcome of an election is assessed quantitatively, rather than qualitatively. Thus, I will use the numbers here to see how the parties have faired in this election, which is clearly a barometer test for what is likely to happen in the forthcoming local government and general elections later this year and next year, respectively.
The February 2014 ward by-election was held in 27 wards across the country. The results of this election show that CCM won in 23 wards, CHADEMA in three wards and NCCR-Mageuzi in one ward. CUF, one of the major opposition political parties in the country, is nowhere to be seen; the party is slowly but surely disappearing from Tanzania Mainland politics! Proportionally, the share of the parties in these 27 wards translates into 85 percent for CCM, 11 percent for CHADEMA and one percent for NCCR-Mageuzi. With respect to the proportion of votes the picture is as follows: CCM 19703 (53%), CHADEMA 12758 (34%), CUF 3318 (9%) and NCCR-Mageuzi 1378 (4%). These votes do not include those in the Mtae Ward (Lushoto) where the CCM candidate sailed unopposed.
What do these numbers mean in terms of which party is progressing on which direction? One way to assess the outcome of this election is to compare these results with the results of the recent previous similar elections. This is the third ward by-election since the 2010 general elections. The first election was held in November 2012 involving 29 wards and the second was held in June 2013 involving 22 wards. I will not deal with the by-election in Arusha held later in 2013 because its context is different.
In the November 2012 election CCM won in 22 wards, CHADEMA won in 5 wards and other parties won in two wards. Proportionally, this translated into 76 percent for CCM, 17 percent for CHADEMA and 7 percent for other parties. In terms of the number and proportion of votes, CCM garnered 29,558 votes (50%), CHADEMA 20,884 votes (32%), and other political parties garnered 7297 (18%).
In the June 2013 by-election, CCM won in 16 wards and CHADEMA won in six wards giving a proportion of 72 percent and 28 percent respectively. In terms of votes, CCM garnered 16,117 votes (53%) and CHADEMA garnered 14,258 (47%).
Clearly, the above trend in the three sets of council election results show that, although it can no longer talk of resounding victory, CCM has remained relatively stable after the 2012 losses, while CHADEMA has been loosing after gaining substantially in 2012 (see Figure 1 below).
The picture is even gloomier when you consider only CCM and CHADEMA in the election result equation. As Figure 2 shows, since 2013, CCM has been gaining while CHADEMA has been loosing in the share of votes.
Figure 1: Proportion of wards and votes garnered by CCM and CHADEMA in council by-election in 2012, 2013 and 2014.
Figure 2: Proportion in the share of votes between CCM and CHADEMA in 2012, 2013 and 2014 by-election
In conclusion, therefore, it is clear from the above analysis that CCM's margin of victory has remained relatively stable, though not as impressive as it used to be a couple of years ago. The analysis above is also clear for CHADEMA: it has been shrinking and the going for this party has particularly been bumpy and tough in the just concluded 2014 by-election. If this trend is not reversed, the picture is hopeless and gloomy for CHADEMA in the next set of elections.
The question that is mind boggling to keen followers of political trends in Tanzania is: why is it that CCM seems to be gaining momentum and continues to win the trust of voters despite its seemingly poor performance in almost every sector of governance? Perhaps even a more sobering question is: why is it that the level of enthusiasm and popularity that we see in the streets for CHADEMA does not seem to correspond with the proportion of votes it has been garnering in the three by-elections? Here are my four reasons why CHADEMA is not doing as good as it should be.
First, voters are clearly tired of CCM and would surely want to replace it. The problem is that CHADEMA does not seem to be providing a credible alternative. This is mainly because, while CHADEMA has managed to expose the flaws of CCM, it has miserably failed to show that it can be a credible alternative. It is one thing to tell people that the road you are following is bumpy; it is completely another thing to show an alternative route to the bumpy road. It is not that CHADEMA does not have good policies. No. The CHADEMA 2010 manifesto came up with some of the best policies this country has ever produced. The trouble is that CHADEMA leaders are simply note interested in articulating their policy positions and pragmatic approaches to the problems confronting the country. CHADEMA leaders have become so obsessed with digging poles into CCM policies and deeds and at throwing sound bites without substance. Consequently, the audiences truly find a lot of fun in what CHADEMA leaders would say, but nothing more than the fun that it comes with sound bites. Back home at a reflection table voters would find nothing tangible from what they were told at a public rally that can address their basic problems now and in future. The final conclusion: no alternative route and therefore I should continue with my bumpy road until a new road is found.
Second, of recent it is has become increasingly difficult to disentangle between CHADEMA and CCM leaders with respect to moral standing. While rhetorically, for example, CHADEMA leaders would make a lot of noise about lavish Government expenditures, practically, when they get an opportunity, they behave more or less the same way and sometimes even worse than the notorious CCM leaders. It has become apparent, for example, that CHADEMA leaders also love lavish and grandiose cars that they rubbished in the 2010 campaigns. CHADEMA MPs love foreign trips that come with heft Perdiems. More interestingly, CHADEMA MPs love the increase in bunge posho that they scathingly criticised in their 2010 manifesto. When it comes to increasing MPs allowances, CCM and CHADEMA MPs would behave the same way-taking the allowances silently and saying nothing to that effect. There is an on-going debate about the allowances to be paid to members of the Constituent assembly at Tshs. 700,000/= per day, which would become the biggest mockery to the Tanzanian taxpayer in the history of this country. But guess what: neither CCM nor CHADEMA have uttered a word about this bigotry. Voters are seeing all these manoeuvrings and the conclusion is that: these are the same people-'it is just the question of it is our time to eat'. Thus, it becomes a dilemma for the voters: should we choose the experienced but somehow an already full 'eater' or should we replace it with a new hungry and empty tammy 'eater'?
Third, CHADEMA is incapable of self-criticism and therefore of self-regulating. CHADEMA leaders suffer what we call in psychology 'it is because of them' attitude. When it comes to an election defeat they would always attribute their losses externally. The problem with external attribution is that you do not have control over external factors that made you to lose an election. Thus, it is easier to rectify the situation in future when you say, for example, that we lost this election because we had a bad candidate or because we did not do enough campaigning or because we did not have sufficient financial resources. Such factors are all correctable in future and they are within the control of the affected person. The trouble is when you lose an election and you claim that I lost because the police were favouring the ruling party, or because the returning officer was not fair, etc. All these may be genuine reasons, but they are external factors that you do not and will never have control over.
The fourth and perhaps a more obvious reason for the poor showing of CHADEMA in the February 2014 by-election is the on-going leadership intraparty crisis. This is particularly the case following the CHADEMA leadership decision to wage a character assassination war on an individual. Instead of campaigning for election victory, CHADEMA top leadership used a great part of the campaign period attacking Zitto Kabwe. Psychologically, in a situation where an institution fights an individual, the latter will always win the public sympathy and in this case CHADEMA has only managed to make Zitto look like a victim deserving protection rather than a problem.
Lastly, let me address one issue that CHADEMA leaders seem to be overwhelmed with. There is a belief among CHADEMA leaders, and it is actually resonating among their fans, that they will definitely win the next election because there will be a re-registration of new voters. This assumption is made on the belief that the majority of young people tend to support opposition political parties, in this case CHADEMA. Two issues are worthy of addressing here. Firstly, CHADEMA does not have any guarantee that all or a substantial proportion of new voters would vote for them. The question CHADEMA leaders should be asking themselves is what is it that they have done to these new voters to deserve their support? We know, for example, that Lowasa and Makamba junior have recently been busy courting the bodabodas in hope of gaining their support towards 2015 election. What Makamba and Lowas are doing may appear nonsensical but it is resonating with young people in major towns in the country and this is likely to translate into votes for CCM come 2015 as it happened in 2005 when JK promised to offer young people massive employment.
Furthermore, the importance of new voters is often exaggerated. We are talking of a group that was at least 15 years at the time of the 2012 census and which will be 18 by 2015 if the registration happens then. According to the 2012 census data, the population of this group is 3,813,299, which is roughly about 20 percent of the expected voters. It is naïve to think that all these youth will register and will eventually vote. It is even more naïve to think this group will only vote for one party called CHADEMA. As I said earlier, so far the opposition has not given any tangible reason as to why young people should vote for them and not for the crook politicians who are providing them with free bodabodas.
CHADEMA still have the opportunity to seize the moment as the main opposition political parties and eventually become a credible alternative to the tired and disfigured CCM. But they should know that people will not just vote CCM out because they are tired of it and CCM is tired of governing. They will vote out CCM if they see a credible alternative. They will not vote out CCM and vote in a group of politicians who pose themselves as opposition while they are actually a bunch of 'it is our time to eat' yahoos! And more importantly, they should know that they are not the only fish in the pond. A credible and serious opposition might be in the offing!
Dr Kitila Mkumbo is Senior Lecturer in Psychology and Education at the University of Dar es Salaam.
-- Dr Kitila Mkumbo
In November 2012 I wrote an article entailing my assessment of the outcome of the council by-elections in 29 wards across the country. The article was published in the weekly Raia Mwema No. 267 of 7 November 2012 titled CHADEMA inakua, CCM inasinyaa (CHADEMA growing, CCM shrinking). In this election, CCM won in 22 wards, CHADEMA in five wards and TLP and CUF won in one ward each. Both CCM and CHADEMA celebrated these results jubilantly.
My verdict of this outcome was that CCM was shrinking, and CHADEMA was growing but at a rather slow pace. My assessment was based on the fact that CHADEMA had won in four new wards that were won by CCM in the 2010 general elections and managed to defend its victory in one ward that it won in the general elections.
My assessment was criticised by the leaders and fans of both parties. CCM, on the one hand, criticised my assessment by concluding that CCM was shrinking, and CHADEMA, on the other, criticised my assessment by concluding that it was growing at a slower pace than would be expected. Indeed, being a member of CHADEMA then, I had made a more scathing criticism in the party meetings by stating that the level of victory that we were getting in the by-elections was too little and did not match the level of enthusiasm and popularity that the party was enjoying in the streets. Thus, I was actually less critical of CHADEMA in the public domain than I had been in the party meetings. My criticism was not positively received by many of my colleagues in the party and I was lazily labelled as pessimistic, and that I was too academic and idealistic in my analysis because I did not know the actual politics on the ground.
Today again I make my analysis of the just concluded council by-election in 27 wards across the country. All the main political parties participated in these elections, with CCM and CHADEMA filing candidates in all wards except one in Lushoto (Mtae Ward) where the CCM candidate went unopposed.
I have argued elsewhere that the outcome of an election is assessed quantitatively, rather than qualitatively. Thus, I will use the numbers here to see how the parties have faired in this election, which is clearly a barometer test for what is likely to happen in the forthcoming local government and general elections later this year and next year, respectively.
The February 2014 ward by-election was held in 27 wards across the country. The results of this election show that CCM won in 23 wards, CHADEMA in three wards and NCCR-Mageuzi in one ward. CUF, one of the major opposition political parties in the country, is nowhere to be seen; the party is slowly but surely disappearing from Tanzania Mainland politics! Proportionally, the share of the parties in these 27 wards translates into 85 percent for CCM, 11 percent for CHADEMA and one percent for NCCR-Mageuzi. With respect to the proportion of votes the picture is as follows: CCM 19703 (53%), CHADEMA 12758 (34%), CUF 3318 (9%) and NCCR-Mageuzi 1378 (4%). These votes do not include those in the Mtae Ward (Lushoto) where the CCM candidate sailed unopposed.
What do these numbers mean in terms of which party is progressing on which direction? One way to assess the outcome of this election is to compare these results with the results of the recent previous similar elections. This is the third ward by-election since the 2010 general elections. The first election was held in November 2012 involving 29 wards and the second was held in June 2013 involving 22 wards. I will not deal with the by-election in Arusha held later in 2013 because its context is different.
In the November 2012 election CCM won in 22 wards, CHADEMA won in 5 wards and other parties won in two wards. Proportionally, this translated into 76 percent for CCM, 17 percent for CHADEMA and 7 percent for other parties. In terms of the number and proportion of votes, CCM garnered 29,558 votes (50%), CHADEMA 20,884 votes (32%), and other political parties garnered 7297 (18%).
In the June 2013 by-election, CCM won in 16 wards and CHADEMA won in six wards giving a proportion of 72 percent and 28 percent respectively. In terms of votes, CCM garnered 16,117 votes (53%) and CHADEMA garnered 14,258 (47%).
Clearly, the above trend in the three sets of council election results show that, although it can no longer talk of resounding victory, CCM has remained relatively stable after the 2012 losses, while CHADEMA has been loosing after gaining substantially in 2012 (see Figure 1 below).
The picture is even gloomier when you consider only CCM and CHADEMA in the election result equation. As Figure 2 shows, since 2013, CCM has been gaining while CHADEMA has been loosing in the share of votes.
Figure 1: Proportion of wards and votes garnered by CCM and CHADEMA in council by-election in 2012, 2013 and 2014.
Figure 2: Proportion in the share of votes between CCM and CHADEMA in 2012, 2013 and 2014 by-election
In conclusion, therefore, it is clear from the above analysis that CCM's margin of victory has remained relatively stable, though not as impressive as it used to be a couple of years ago. The analysis above is also clear for CHADEMA: it has been shrinking and the going for this party has particularly been bumpy and tough in the just concluded 2014 by-election. If this trend is not reversed, the picture is hopeless and gloomy for CHADEMA in the next set of elections.
The question that is mind boggling to keen followers of political trends in Tanzania is: why is it that CCM seems to be gaining momentum and continues to win the trust of voters despite its seemingly poor performance in almost every sector of governance? Perhaps even a more sobering question is: why is it that the level of enthusiasm and popularity that we see in the streets for CHADEMA does not seem to correspond with the proportion of votes it has been garnering in the three by-elections? Here are my four reasons why CHADEMA is not doing as good as it should be.
First, voters are clearly tired of CCM and would surely want to replace it. The problem is that CHADEMA does not seem to be providing a credible alternative. This is mainly because, while CHADEMA has managed to expose the flaws of CCM, it has miserably failed to show that it can be a credible alternative. It is one thing to tell people that the road you are following is bumpy; it is completely another thing to show an alternative route to the bumpy road. It is not that CHADEMA does not have good policies. No. The CHADEMA 2010 manifesto came up with some of the best policies this country has ever produced. The trouble is that CHADEMA leaders are simply note interested in articulating their policy positions and pragmatic approaches to the problems confronting the country. CHADEMA leaders have become so obsessed with digging poles into CCM policies and deeds and at throwing sound bites without substance. Consequently, the audiences truly find a lot of fun in what CHADEMA leaders would say, but nothing more than the fun that it comes with sound bites. Back home at a reflection table voters would find nothing tangible from what they were told at a public rally that can address their basic problems now and in future. The final conclusion: no alternative route and therefore I should continue with my bumpy road until a new road is found.
Second, of recent it is has become increasingly difficult to disentangle between CHADEMA and CCM leaders with respect to moral standing. While rhetorically, for example, CHADEMA leaders would make a lot of noise about lavish Government expenditures, practically, when they get an opportunity, they behave more or less the same way and sometimes even worse than the notorious CCM leaders. It has become apparent, for example, that CHADEMA leaders also love lavish and grandiose cars that they rubbished in the 2010 campaigns. CHADEMA MPs love foreign trips that come with heft Perdiems. More interestingly, CHADEMA MPs love the increase in bunge posho that they scathingly criticised in their 2010 manifesto. When it comes to increasing MPs allowances, CCM and CHADEMA MPs would behave the same way-taking the allowances silently and saying nothing to that effect. There is an on-going debate about the allowances to be paid to members of the Constituent assembly at Tshs. 700,000/= per day, which would become the biggest mockery to the Tanzanian taxpayer in the history of this country. But guess what: neither CCM nor CHADEMA have uttered a word about this bigotry. Voters are seeing all these manoeuvrings and the conclusion is that: these are the same people-'it is just the question of it is our time to eat'. Thus, it becomes a dilemma for the voters: should we choose the experienced but somehow an already full 'eater' or should we replace it with a new hungry and empty tammy 'eater'?
Third, CHADEMA is incapable of self-criticism and therefore of self-regulating. CHADEMA leaders suffer what we call in psychology 'it is because of them' attitude. When it comes to an election defeat they would always attribute their losses externally. The problem with external attribution is that you do not have control over external factors that made you to lose an election. Thus, it is easier to rectify the situation in future when you say, for example, that we lost this election because we had a bad candidate or because we did not do enough campaigning or because we did not have sufficient financial resources. Such factors are all correctable in future and they are within the control of the affected person. The trouble is when you lose an election and you claim that I lost because the police were favouring the ruling party, or because the returning officer was not fair, etc. All these may be genuine reasons, but they are external factors that you do not and will never have control over.
The fourth and perhaps a more obvious reason for the poor showing of CHADEMA in the February 2014 by-election is the on-going leadership intraparty crisis. This is particularly the case following the CHADEMA leadership decision to wage a character assassination war on an individual. Instead of campaigning for election victory, CHADEMA top leadership used a great part of the campaign period attacking Zitto Kabwe. Psychologically, in a situation where an institution fights an individual, the latter will always win the public sympathy and in this case CHADEMA has only managed to make Zitto look like a victim deserving protection rather than a problem.
Lastly, let me address one issue that CHADEMA leaders seem to be overwhelmed with. There is a belief among CHADEMA leaders, and it is actually resonating among their fans, that they will definitely win the next election because there will be a re-registration of new voters. This assumption is made on the belief that the majority of young people tend to support opposition political parties, in this case CHADEMA. Two issues are worthy of addressing here. Firstly, CHADEMA does not have any guarantee that all or a substantial proportion of new voters would vote for them. The question CHADEMA leaders should be asking themselves is what is it that they have done to these new voters to deserve their support? We know, for example, that Lowasa and Makamba junior have recently been busy courting the bodabodas in hope of gaining their support towards 2015 election. What Makamba and Lowas are doing may appear nonsensical but it is resonating with young people in major towns in the country and this is likely to translate into votes for CCM come 2015 as it happened in 2005 when JK promised to offer young people massive employment.
Furthermore, the importance of new voters is often exaggerated. We are talking of a group that was at least 15 years at the time of the 2012 census and which will be 18 by 2015 if the registration happens then. According to the 2012 census data, the population of this group is 3,813,299, which is roughly about 20 percent of the expected voters. It is naïve to think that all these youth will register and will eventually vote. It is even more naïve to think this group will only vote for one party called CHADEMA. As I said earlier, so far the opposition has not given any tangible reason as to why young people should vote for them and not for the crook politicians who are providing them with free bodabodas.
CHADEMA still have the opportunity to seize the moment as the main opposition political parties and eventually become a credible alternative to the tired and disfigured CCM. But they should know that people will not just vote CCM out because they are tired of it and CCM is tired of governing. They will vote out CCM if they see a credible alternative. They will not vote out CCM and vote in a group of politicians who pose themselves as opposition while they are actually a bunch of 'it is our time to eat' yahoos! And more importantly, they should know that they are not the only fish in the pond. A credible and serious opposition might be in the offing!
Dr Kitila Mkumbo is Senior Lecturer in Psychology and Education at the University of Dar es Salaam.
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