Re: [wanabidii] How Tanzanias Exclusion from EAC has Traumatized President Museveni

Is Tanzania not a signatory to this protocol?????

From: Tracy John <tracykwetu@gmail.com>
To: wanabidii@googlegroups.com
Sent: Wednesday, December 4, 2013 6:23 PM
Subject: [wanabidii] How Tanzanias Exclusion from EAC has Traumatized President Museveni

How Tanzania’s Exclusion from EAC has Traumatized President Museveni, Prompting him to Court Kenya by Making President Uhuru the Chairman of the EAC amidst Fears, Tanzania Might Form a Separate Regional Block

By Fred Daka Kamwada

On Saturday of last week president Museveni was at Kololo airstrip for the EAC function following a Monetary Union Protocol that was signed by the Heads of States on what has since been dubbed as the ‘coalition of wiling countries’ that include Kenya Rwanda and Uganda.

 A very tired looking Museveni arrived at Kololo ceremonial grounds to address thousands of Ugandans who turned up to express solidarity with East Africa's Heads of States and Government on East Africa Community integration.

On top of some Ugandans who graced the Kololo airstrip event, the event was also graced by foreign dignitaries.

When a disinterested and bored President Museveni took to the podium, he chose, to the shock and surprise of everyone, to address the guests in vernacular.

Some of the people in the audience expected the president to translate the speech which he labored in Luganda for the sake of understanding what he was saying.

But the president who spoke for less than ten minutes (one of his shortest speeches in the last 27 years) simply signed off and walked to the tent.  

A disinterested president then sat through the routine that included the dancing and singing of some school children before he left the scene.

The whole affair left the spectators wondering what was wrong with their lovely president?

A typical Museveni usually gives joyful speeches and usually translates whenever he speaks in vernacular to make himself understood to those who don’t speak the language. This time he never did the interpretation, sparking a wave of theories from the crowd.

One of the theories floated around was that the president was not (inwardly) happy that the protocol was signed without his old friends from Tanzania.

‘‘It’s thought that he is not happy that Tanzania continues to keep away from the EAC’’, said an insider.

Sources close to the President have said that the Museveni has tried everything in the book to bring back Tanzania to the EAC fold with little success.

The Fallout

He is said to have tried to mediate between Rwandese President Paul Kagame and his Tanzanian counterpart who form the backbone of the disagreement to no avail.

He is said to have on several occasions called President Jakaya Kikwete to talk about the whole affair but failed to convince him to join the EAC fold.

The Ugandan president who has been a known admirer and historic of the Tanzanian government for many years seems to have felt a sense of dejection about the continued exclusion of  the country that helped him and other Ugandan exiles to dethrone the despotic regime of Gen Idi Amin.

And when the protocol was signed a skeptical Museveni was not in his usual upbeat moods.

Museveni knows that it’s not sustainable to continue with the EAC process without Tanzania.

M7 turns to Kenya

The regional politics in the great lakes region has been taking turns and twists in the recent two years.

The Congo question has destabilized the hitherto good relationships between the regional countries. This all started when Tanzanian president suggested that Paul kagame swallows his pride and speaks with the Rwandese dissidents who disagree with him. It’s widely believed this was the reason why kagame fell out with Kikwete.

It’s also rumored that kagame is angered mostly because he is aware that Kikwete has sympathies for FDLR because he married a Hutu lady closely related to the late Rwandese president Juvenal Habyarimana. 

It’s this untold detail that has led to the frosty relationship between Rwanda and Tanzania.

And when Rwanda fell out with Tanzania, the Kampala regime also found itself in a tricky catch 22 situation. It had to decide whether to ally with Kigali or Dar-el-salaam.

Bearing in mind the security challenges that bedevil Uganda (worried about ADF rebels) and Rwanda (in constant fear of the FDLR or Interahamwe extremists in Eastern Congo), the Kampala government opted to ally with Rwanda leaving Kenya as the only neutral country in the regional politics.

That is how we ended up with the alliance of the wiling where Uganda, Kenya and Rwanda signed the recent protocol.

Kenya’s Hand

With Rwanda in the good books and Tanzania out of the fold, the Ugandan president is doing everything in the book to win the total friendship of the Kenyan government.

President Museveni’s desire to win the trust and total friendship of the Kenyans led him to attack the international criminal court for indicting Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto.

While everyone was puzzled as to why a Museveni who strongly supported the ICC was turning tables in the same court, he was wining the heart and souls of the new Kenyan leadership.

He knew that with Kenya he had won a very useful ally in regional politics.

Tanzania Reacts 

Meanwhile, when Tanzania felt isolated, it decided to turn tables on the Ugandan and Rwandan governments by supporting the Congolese Government to flush out the M23 rebels form eastern Congo.

The Ugandan and Rwandese government s are now worried that the Tanzanian government will support the rebels opposed to Kigali and Kampala.

While everyone is talking about regional integration, the strategists are looking at the security dynamics involved in the regional politics where Tanzania remains vividly isolated but dangerously creating its own power base with Congo and Burundi.

All this is worrying the Ugandan government.

The Ugandan Government has tried with little success to win the trust of President Joseph Kabila. Kabila feels that in Tanzania, he has finally got a military ally who can bark and keep the big dogs, Ugandan and Rwanda, away.

All these dynamics are depressing the Ugandan president immensely. That is why he was not in his usual best moods last week even when he had signed a protocol with Kenya, south Sudan and Rwanda.

After signing the protocol last week, he tried to get in touch with Tanzanian President Kikwete to revisit their relationship, but the Tanzanian President declined the Kampala invitation.

Museveni also made efforts to get in touch with Congolese President Joseph Kabila who promptly showed up on Monday.

But our sources claim that Kabila gave little away in terms of agreeing anything concrete and promptly traveled back to Kinshasa on the same day after meeting Museveni for less than two hours.

With Tanzania as his backers, Kabila doesn’t need Museveni to lecture him about the regional politics anymore as he used to do in the old days.

There are suggestions that Tanzania might galvanize Congo and Burundi into forming a separate block.

The Dynamics

The rules of the game in the great lakes region have changed.

And Museveni is the only one who knows the consequences of such a scenario.

This explains why President Museveni made all efforts to make sure that Uhuru Kenyatta takes the EAC chair to consolidate the alliance with Kenya.

By lobbying for President Uhuru Kenyatta as the chairman of the East African integration, and defending him regarding the ICC case Museveni, was trying to win the total loyalty and trust of the Kenyan President and his government that led to the protocol that was signed last week.

The Protocol

Under the protocol that was signed last week, the EAC states are expected to surrender monetary and exchange rate policies to one authority leading to a single currency regime within the region.

The protocol will also provide for a wide scope of co-operation in monetary and financial sectors among EAC member states.
The regime will be implemented over a period of 10 years subsequently to creation of a regional central Bank whose mandate is to stabilize financial prices as well as monitoring surveillance and enforcing compliance of all other macro-finance matters.

But while everyone is talking about regional integration, Museveni is also thinking about the consequences of losing Tanzania as an ally. President Museveni is aware that the balance of power in the great lakes region is tilting and drifting slowly away from him to Tanzania.

This explains why he has been in a very down beat mode and even failed to translate the speech he gave in vernacular to an audience that included foreign dignitaries.

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