The Gulf monarchies – the six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)) – are undergoing dramatic change. A new Chatham House report on Future Trends in the Gulf argues that the Gulf countries should seize the opportunity to carry out meaningful reforms towards more constitutional forms of monarchy. Failing that, the various dynamics of change – economic, demographic, social and political – will add to pressures on the states of the Gulf, and increase the risks of future conflict in a region of vital strategic importance to the rest of the world.
The report makes a number of recommendations for GCC governments and international allies, including: | |
|  | The Gulf countries should seize the enviable opportunities that they have to carry out gradual and consensual political and social reforms towards more constitutional forms of monarchy. | |
| | Gulf states should adopt stronger, more transparent institutional mechanisms – parliaments, judiciaries and ministries – to manage the competing interests that naturally arise in any society. | |
| | International allies should diversify the base of relations with the Gulf beyond the existing elites. This will be critical to developing long-term, sustainable strategic partnerships of clear value to both sides. | |
| | Defence cooperation with the Gulf needs to be placed in a wider political context, where respect for human rights is not seen as being at odds with security imperatives, but as part of ensuring sustainable security. | |
| | Cooperation on health care, education, affordable housing, resource sustainability and cultural industries will have wider public appeal than defence, finance and energy, which create few local jobs. | |
| | International businesses seeking a long-term presence in the Gulf need to find ways to obtain public buy-in by adding value to the local economy and skills base, and by employing locals as well as the expatriates who make up most of the workforce. | |
| | In partnering with Gulf countries against extremism, international allies need to broach sensitive issues such as sectarianism, religious intolerance and political repression. | |
| | It is essential that Western policy-makers listen to local public opinion, which is not always conveyed to them by the Gulf governments. Gulf populations want more weight to be given to protecting people in their region – especially Iraqis, Syrians and Palestinians – from state violence and refugeehood as well as terrorist groups. | |
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