UTAFITI HUU: CCM KUOGOPA SANGARA KUHAMA BWAWA?
Tafadhali angalia kiambatanisho kama kinavyonukuliwa kutoka gazeti la nipashe
Nimeangalia kielelezo cha matokeo ya utafiti wa taasisi inayoheshimika nikajaribu kuitetea ili nami niiheshimu nikakosa nikaona niilete hapa nisaidiwe ili tuweze kuiheshimu wote.
1) Nimeona na kushangaa hili duara. Sehemu ya 32.8 ni dogo kuliko sehemu nyingine. Nilifikiri hilo lingekuwa la kwanza maana ni 32.8% ndio ije ya 20 (Lowasa) na 11 (Dr. Slaa). Nikafikiri labda kwa kuwa hiyo inawakilisha watu kumi. Nikasonga mbele.
2) Mtu wa Mwisho ana 2% (Lisu). Kama zile 32.8% zinagawanywa sawa kwa watu kumi maana yake wana 3%. Iweje asiwaandike hao wenye kubwa (3%), badala yake aandike wa 2%? Lakini uwezekano wa watu 10 kuzidiana sawa haupo. Kwa hiyo huenda kuna wan ne au hata tano mboha hakuwaweka?
3 Mtafiti anashauri kuwa Chama kikikosa kumleta anayependwa sana (in this case Lowasa) basi wananchi watampigia kura anayefuata yaani Slaa. Simuelewi. Lowasa na Slaa wana 30% hatwambii kuwa hao 30% walisema wasipotokea wanaowapenda hawatapiga kura. Kwa nini asione uwezekano wa namba mbili katika CCM yaani Magufuli au namba tatu (Membe) wanaweza kupigiwa kura kwa sababu waliowapenda hawapo? Ushindi wa 20% unaweza kubabaisha chama kikaweka mtu mbovu ili kishinde? Angejaribu utafiti mwingine basi kutaka kujiridhisha. Akaondoa jina la Lowasa kuona kama wale 20% wataacha kupiga kura. Hata kama wakiacha 70% wana uwezo mkubwa wa kumchagua rais bila 20% wanaompenda Lowasa. Mtafiti nadhani ni mgeni katika nchi hii. Kwa garama kubwa Lowasa anamkaribia Mrema wa 1995. Kwani ilikuwaje? Nani atukumbushe tafiti za siku hizo.
Mawazo yangu utafiti huu umevisaidia vyama kuzikodolea asilimia za ambao hawatakuwepo katika kinyanganyilo. Kuna dalili kuwa Lowasa hawezi kuteuliwa na CCM. Basi CDM wakodolee hiyo 20% ya Lowasa. Kuna dalili kuwa UKAWA watamsimamisha mgombea mmoja basi CCM izikodolee kura za watakaoachwa ndani ya ukawa. Kuna 32.8% ambazo wenye nazo hawajulikani. Vyama vizitafute hizo. Ninachojua sangara akishaona jua hawezi kuishi hata akirudi majini. Kwa hiyo kwa CCM hakuna kuogopa masangara kuhama mabwawa.
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