Re: [wanabidii] Dar City to sink in next five decades

'change' is what is needed right now! ,We use 'environmental citizenship' will solve this problem

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On Tue, 25/11/14, Yona Fares Maro <oldmoshi@gmail.com> wrote:

Subject: [wanabidii] Dar City to sink in next five decades
To: wanabidii@googlegroups.com
Date: Tuesday, 25 November, 2014, 11:43

Five
decades from now sounds like a very long time but scientists
say it is the time it will take for coastal flooding to wipe
Dar es Salaam off the map, especially Temeke and
Kinondoni.These
two districts will be flooded, says the first quantitative
estimate of the potential number of people and associated
economic assets that are exposed to coastal
flooding.This
risk, described as credible, is attributed to the rise of
the sea level in future, according to a study by Robert J.
Nicholls, a Professor of Coastal Engineering, and PhD
Researcher Abiy S. Kebede, both from the University of
Southampton.Almost
five million people live in Dar es Salaam—the country's
largest commercial city with a population of over five
million and home to about 10 per cent of the population.
Most residents here live in poor and unplanned settlements,
leaving the city prone to coastal flooding in
future.The
city is also characterised by urban sprawl and expanding
informal settlements, resulting from increasing population
pressure, poor infrastructure and inadequate town planning.
All these factors expose Dar es Salaam to disasters
resulting from heavy rain.According
to the 2002 census data, most of the unplanned settlements
are concentrated in Kinondoni district. Tandale ward has the
highest inland population density of about 43,000 people per
square kilometre. The researchers note that most of the
city's population growth has taken place along the central
and northern part of the coastline, with the majority of the
population living in unplanned and informal inland
settlements.The
scariest part of the study dubbed "Exposure and
vulnerability to climate extremes: population and asset
exposure to coastal flooding in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania"
is that both natural and man-made defences are compromised
by poor urban planning and unplanned human
settlements.Potentially,
the scientists point out, millions of people could be
exposed to a 100-year coastal flood event by 2070, up from
30,000 people in 2005, while assets such as buildings and
businesses that could be damaged due to such an event is
estimated to rise from $35 million (2015) to $10 billion
(2070).About
eight per cent of Dar es Salaam lies within the
low-elevation coastal zone that is below the 10-metre
contour lines. In the past weeks, the city has been
devastated by heavy rains, destroying the already
dilapidated infrastructure and working up a transport crisis
for millions of city dwellers.On
Tuesday this week, The Citizen reported that authorities
estimate that it could cost upward of Sh44 billion
($27million) to repair the road network.Last
month, Executive Director of the Centre for Sustainable
Modern Energy Expertise Estomihi Sawe said that although
destructive floods happen after many years, signs that the
changing climatic conditions could raise the chances of such
calamities recurring more often are already evident—and
the authorities should consider planning for the future now.
He advised: "It is high time our authorities put in place
long-term strategies to save the city from being cut off
from the rest of the country and subject the country to loss
of lives and a battered economy."The
study makes it clear that the scenarios investigated provide
a wide range of possible futures and associated exposure
that indicate the potential worst-case magnitude of any
future event that needs to be considered when planning for
the future. While climate change is largely attributed to
the industrialised nations, the two researchers point out
that the city's growing population and rapid urbanisation
represent the most dynamic factors underlying most of the
immediate causes of degradation of the natural
environment.In
the past few weeks, several scientist groups have tried to
show that following the increasingly high greenhouse gas
emissions over this century, what was once a
one-in-100-years flood experience may now occur more
often.Two
groups of scientists quoted by The New York Times reported
recently that a large section of the mighty West Antarctica
ice sheet has started falling apart and its continued
melting appears unstoppable. If the findings hold up, the
groups suggest that the melting could destabilise areas
neighbouring the ice sheet and a rise in sea level of 10
feet or more may be unavoidable in coming centuries.
Scientists have warned that although the rise of the sea is
likely to continue to be relatively slow for the rest of the
21st century, in the more distant future it may accelerate
markedly, potentially throwing society into crisis.http://www.thecitizen.co.tz/News/Dar-City-to-sink-in--next-five-decades/-/1840392/2314864/-/item/1/-/ra29vbz/-/index.html




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