For what it's worth, there are several international democracy fostering and monitoring agencies that are in the country conducting their own surveys that are not made public much as they did in the period leading to the 2007 elections.
One of them is a leading and highly reputable international organization that conducted an exit poll in 2007 which was to be made public but refused to do so following what happened at KICC.
Had they made those numbers public, Kibaki would have been forced to vacate office because their data has never been wrong in all the countries they have been conducting research last 30 years.
The exit poll showed Kibaki losing in a landslide.
Now, if yours truly can be privy to these international surveys, you can be on it those on the other side are and know what the real deal is.
I cannot tell you what the numbers are but I bring this to your attention to tell you all the polls conducted in the country, be they partisan one sponsored by the candidates, or non-partisan, international ones like this show Raila and now Cord winning; they may vary in margins, but the two are nonetheless winning and if you go by historical trends in Kenya, those numbers always get better as we get to the day of reckoning, meaning Election Day.
You can remain restless assured there are a lot of people in Jubilee extremely despondent knowing they're on the losing side of this but can't do anything about it because they're captive.
Raila and Cord, on the other hand, are ever more so confident victory is at hand.
Peace, Unity and Truth
Omwenga
On Sun, Jan 13, 2013 at 5:46 AM, Maryann Wanjiru <cirumariga2007@gmail.com> wrote:
thanks Evans.
And we have no issues with anyone leading in the said polls BUT can there be accuracy and honesty.
its not fair because all candidates are spending so much money and time campaigning then a presidential candidate going ahead to use his influence and relatives to publish wrong figures is completely unacceptable.
On Jan 13, 2013 1:29 PM, "Evans MACHERA" <evansmachera@yahoo.com> wrote:--Dear Maryann,I saw the NMG Feature on opinnion polls and thank you for posting - i was to post the same here.The position of the NMG commentary must be highly commended and be viewd by all men and women of good will as a good indicator in a society that takes different positions depending on what report the opinion holds.I have to say the following;-Opinion polls are a research survey of public opinion from a particular sample where general observations are made from questions on a particular subject.I have had assignments on research before including for two leading research firms in the country.The major problem lies with respondents.They usually misunderstand the questions or your intent all together.For example,one of the questions i put across to respondents was;-1.Where do you do your banking services.For an answer,i was asked "Kijana,why do u want my bank account"! Who sent you!In the questionare,the drafters had in mind the name of the bank and not the bank account. The central theme was about the services and various products on offer in which one bank wanted to compare with others. The regions covered were Lavington,Upper hill and Gigiri.Its only few people who responded.Even foreign institutions refused me entry on asking me what i wanted.Then come to the political questions. Our politics are largely shaped by our tribal affiliation,kingpin and party. Nothing can come out good if the question does not view my leaning - the other side is automatically not good.Coupled with unethical professionals (reserchers and reporters), the expected "answer" is usually unexpected! And the media blows depending on the interest/leaning!As you have put it,opinion polls nearlly brought kenya to its Knees - perhaps we need to understand the one million dollar question ;-1). What was the explainantion (by research) as to why there whas a meteoric rise for one candidate and drastic fall for the other in a short time pace!Ipsos Synovate will need to explain some day.Who owned the polsters of 2007!And how better/worse are our forums on opinions on various matters!Evans MACHERA.From: Maryann Wanjiru <cirumariga2007@gmail.com>
To: progressive-kenyans@googlegroups.com; uchunguzionline@yahoogroups.com; wanakenya@googlegroups.com; CHANGE MOMBASA 2012 <changemombasa2012@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Sunday, January 13, 2013 11:26 AM
Subject: Nation Media Group on Opinion Polls
I want to take this opportunity to congratulate NMG on their feature on opinion polls, in their today's newspaper.NMG will only report opinion polls that disclose their methodology, that are not parochial and which are conducted by credible polling firms, since now there is legal frame work for political opinion polling after parliament passed the publication of Opinion Polls Act.Excellent work NMG and I am also requesting other media outlets to do the same, we saw how skewed and untrue opinion polls almost brought this country down in 2007/8Now while at it, would it also be possible to know who owns or runs this firms, just to be sure they are not being operated by relatives of the candidates, especially presidential candidates???
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